During a epidemic, Rt is the measure known as the effective reproduction number. It’s the number of people who become infected per infectious person at time t. The version the media only talks about is the basic reproduction number: Ro when t = 0. But , Ro is a single measure that does not adapt with changes in behavior and restrictions.
As a pandemic evolves, increasing restrictions (or potential releasing of restrictions) changes Rt. Knowing the current Rt is essential. When R >> 1, the pandemic will spread through a large part of the population. If Rt < 1, the pandemic will slow quickly before it has a chance to infect many people. The lower the Rt: the more manageable the situation. In general, any Rt<1 means things are under control.
The value of Rt helps us in two ways.
Tracking Rt is the only way to manage through this crisis.
today, we don’t yet use Rt in this way. In fact, the only real-time measure I’ve seen has been for Hong Kong. More importantly, it is not useful to understand Rt at a national level. Instead, to manage this crisis effectively, we need a local (state, county and/or city) tracking level of Rt.
I wrote the code for model which can found here. It calculates at a state level the Value of Rt at a state level. This can easily be adapted for county or even city level.
We believe in finding the truth. We would like to investigate all theories that could explain the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 without predefined assumptions on what can or can not be true. We are an anonymous group of researchers. We are not affiliated with any company, nation state, or organization. We are not receiving funding from any sources, public or private. We are not doing this because we hate China, but because we love the truth. […]
The face mask controversy is a topic that will spoken about for generations. How will it be written and defined?…Well I’ll let you be the judge of that.
I have spent weeks researching the issues on Face Mask. From anecdotal evidence to proven scientific evidence that is peer reviewed in the worlds most trusted medical journals. […]
The apps built on top of Apple and Google’s new system will not be a ‘magic bullet’ techno-solution to the current state of the pandemic. The issue of malicious use particularly given this current climate of disinformation, Fake News, and political manipulation. […]
Over past couple of weeks you have seen something vast majority of us have never seen in our lifetime. LIMITED supply of meat products across the country. Restrictions on the amount you can buy. This has become the new “normal”. This is just the beginning and it will get worse before it gets better. […]